Abducing the Crisis

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Abducing the Crisis

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dc.contributor.author Crespo, Ricardo
dc.contributor.author Tohmé, Fernando
dc.contributor.author Heymann, Daniel
dc.date.accessioned 2017-02-07T12:59:33Z
dc.date.available 2017-02-07T12:59:33Z
dc.date.issued 2010
dc.identifier.citation Crespo, R. F., Tohmé, F., & Heymann, D. (2010). Abducing the crisis. In Model-Based Reasoning in Science and Technology (pp. 179-198). Springer Berlin Heidelberg. en_US
dc.identifier.uri https://riu.austral.edu.ar/handle/123456789/338
dc.description.abstract Macroeconomic crises are events marked by “broken promises” that shatter the expectations that many agents had entertained about their economic prospects and wealth positions. Crises lead to reappraisals of the views of the world upon which agents had based their expectations, plans and decisions, and to a reconsideration of theories and models on the part of analysts. A crisis triggers widespread efforts of abduction in search of new hypothesis and explanations. In this paper we will explore, in particular, the abductions that analysts may apply after a crisis and see how they reveal the prevalence of “wrong” abductions at the onset of the crisis. In order to carry out this exercise, we study the general role of abduction in economic analysis, both theoretical and practical. Economic theory generally proceeds by constructing models, that is, mental schemes based on mental experiments. They are often written in mathematical language but, apart from their formal expression, they use metaphors, analogies and pieces of intuition to motivate their assumptions and to give support to their conclusions. We try to capture all these elements in a formal scheme and apply the ensuing model of abduction to the analysis of macroeconomic crises. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher In L. Magnani, W. Carnielli and C. Pizzi (eds.), Model Based Reasoning in Science and Technology: Abduction, Logic and Computational Discovery, Studies in Computational Intelligence Series, Vol. 314. Springer Verlag: 179-198. en_US
dc.subject macroeconomics en_US
dc.subject crisis en_US
dc.subject broken promises en_US
dc.title Abducing the Crisis en_US
dc.type Book chapter en_US


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